In this blog, I hope to explain the most recent trends in youth voter turnout in the UK, contextualise them in their global and historical setting, consider why we see reduced youth turnout in general elections, explain why it matters, and what you can do.
How low is youth voter turnout?
Figure 1. Voter turnout by age (British Election Study 2021)
The Government doesn’t keep exact records of voter demographics, but surveys by researchers can give useful estimates. I’ve included this graphic as it paints a clear picture of a radical divide in political participation across age groups. With the vertical bars indicating the margin of uncertainty, figure 1 shows turnout by age in the most recent general elections. The British election study (2021) estimates that in the 2019 UK general election, 54.5% of 18-24-year-olds eligible to vote did so compared to 67% of the general population and 78.5% of those over 65. As you can see, voter turnout increases with each age group after 25-34 year olds.
Is it just us and just now?
‘Estimated turnout by life stage at General Elections: 1964-2015, UK’ ( Gardiner, Resolution Foundation, 2017)
‘Notes: The measure of turnout is the number of voters as a share of the eligible population which excludes non-nationals. Source: Resolution Foundation analysis of British Election study; UK political info; ONS, Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS, Labour Force Survey’. Figure 2: ( Gardiner, Resolution Foundation, 2017)
As we can see in Figure 2, whilst those under 35 have almost always voted less than those over 35, the gap emerges in the 1990s, with youth voter turnout dropping significantly below that of older groups. This gap has then persisted in the subsequent decades.
Interestingly, lower youth turnout has been observed across OECD nations (OECD 2017) and in recent French (Pickard, 2022) and USA elections (Jung & Gopalan 2023), suggesting that the UK is not exceptional in this regard. Also, notably this international decline of the youth vote in the late 20th century coincides with a general decline in voter turnout across countries (Kostelka and Blais 2021)
So why do fewer young people vote?
Blais and Reubensen (2013) analysed electoral patterns and social attitudes surveys across nations. They found internationally that those born in or after the 1960s are less likely to vote and have a less strong sense of civic duty and voting efficacy. Kostelka and Blais (2021) argue that the greater affluence of the 60s onwards meant that young adults were less needed to support their family’s subsistence. Therefore, young adults were able to be more culturally independent from their families. Vitally, the generations born in the 60s onwards, given their greater independence from their families, appeared to show less deference to Social norms (Sutcliffe-Braithwaite, 2018). Kostelka and Blais (2021) argue that this reduced deference to social norms is a key factor in reduced voter turnout. This, I think, gives a compelling argument for why we see reduced voter turnout but does not in itself explain why the same young voters who didn’t vote aged 25 seem more likely to vote at 45.
Evidence suggests if someone has already voted, they are more likely to vote again (Dinas, 2012), meaning voting becomes a habit once started, and the Life cycle theory attempts to explain why many non-voters become voters over their lifetime (Smets, 2016). Life cycle theory proposes that exposure to conditions that occur over one’s life course exposes one to politics and makes one more likely to vote. For instance, getting a job, buying a house, and having children (Smets, 2016). As one ages, one is likely to experience more of these factors for longer and, therefore, more likely to vote. This is supported by Smets (2016) research which finds a positive correlation between certain life course events and increased likelihood to vote. Of course correlation does not equal causation but this evidence is promising for the life cycle theory. Further to this I would suggest It seems plausible that the more time one is an eligible voter, the more likely it is they will be exposed to something that convinces them in the merits of voting.
Why does it matter?
In short, because it weakens the democracies and makes it harder for effected groups to hold the Government to account (Kostelka and Blais, 2021) (Smets, 2016). In a nation where a low proportion of young people vote, it is easier for a government to neglect the needs of young people. Poor political representation can be argued to compound existing issues, making things worse for young people. This is particularly pertinent in the UK, with young people feeling much of the pain of the country’s economic hardship over the last 20 years. Today’s young people are less likely to own a home, have less disposable income, and pay higher student loans than previous generations. With a growing generational wealth gap, and the task of tackling climate change ahead of them (Simpson and Bui, 2021). All of these problems can be addressed by political action however a party advocating for these measures will not win if people do not tun up to vote for it.
What Can I do?
Well, firstly, if eligible, you can vote in the upcoming general election. Secondly, you can support policies that broaden political inclusion, such as citizenship education (Donbavand and Hoskins 2021). Thirdly, you can have the debate with non-voters you know and hopefully be part of a cultural shift towards greater political participation. Whilst individual voters may feel they don’t make a difference, large groups of individuals do make a difference. By not voting, they make young people an ignorable section of the voter base, or by voting they make young people a group that need to be represented to command a democratic mandate.
References
Blais, A., & Rubenson, D. (2013). The Source of Turnout Decline: New Values or New Contexts? Comparative Political Studies, 46(1), 95-117. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414012453032
British Election Study, 2021. Age and voting behaviour at the 2019 General Election. [Online]
Available at: https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/
[Accessed 27 02 2024].
Dinas E. (2012) The Formation of Voting Habits, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 22:4, 431-456, DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2012.718280
Donbavand S, Hoskins B., 2021. Citizenship Education for Political Engagement: A Systematic Review of Controlled Trials. Social Sciences; 10(5):151. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10050151
Gardiner, L., 2017. Votey McVoteface: what’s driving the generational turnout gap, and why it matters. Resolution Foundation. [Online]
Available at: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/votey-mcvoteface-whats-driving-the-generational-turnout-gap-and-why-it-matters/
[Accessed 27 02 2024].
Kostelka, F. and Blais, A. (2021) ‘The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout’, World Politics, 73(4), pp. 629–667. doi:10.1017/S0043887121000149
OECD, 2017. How’s Life? 2017: Measuring Well-being, Paris: OECD Publishing.
Pickard, S., 2022. Jaded ‘Jeunesse’: abstention, protest and the generation gap in French politics. Intergenerational foundation. [Online]
Available at: https://www.if.org.uk/2022/07/19/jaded-jeunesse-abstention-protest-and-the-generation-gap-in-french-politics/
[Accessed 27 02 2024].
Jung, J., & Gopalan, M. (2023). The Stubborn Unresponsiveness of Youth Voter Turnout to Civic Education: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From State-Mandated Civics Tests. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.3102/01623737231195887
Simpson, L. and Bui, M.(2021) left behind: A decade of intergenerational unfairness. The Intergenerational Foundation. Available at https://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Left-Behind-A-Decade-of-Intergenerational-Unfairness_Curtis_Banks.pdf Accessed 28.02.2024
Smets, K. (2016) ‘Revisiting the political life-cycle model: later maturation and turnout decline among young adults’, European Political Science Review, 8(2), pp. 225–249. doi:10.1017/S1755773914000460.
Sutcliffe-Braithwaite, F., 2018. Class, politics, and the decline of deference in England, 1968-2000. Oxford University Press.